Event Title

Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota

Location

CSU 255

Start Date

20-4-2015 2:10 PM

End Date

20-4-2015 3:10 PM

Student's Major

Mathematics and Statistics

Student's College

Science, Engineering and Technology

Mentor's Name

Deepak Sanjel

Mentor's Email Address

deepak.sanjel@mnsu.edu

Mentor's Department

Mathematics and Statistics

Mentor's College

Science, Engineering and Technology

Description

During September 2010, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota resulting in an estimated $65 million in damages and was declared a federal disaster area. The estimated damage of the 2012 flood in Duluth MN was $100 million. Accurately modeling historical river floods is very important in order to protect damage of property and life. It is often argued that phenomenon’s such as floods, hurricanes, and storms are unforeseeable and cannot be predicted accurately. We will investigate if appropriate statistical model are fitted to the historical data and then we can accurately predict such extreme events. We will use various extreme value modeling techniques used in literature and also propose new time-dependent model for predicting future events. For the analysis we will use paste 125 years of Minnesota river data collected by U.S. Geographical survey (USGS) and investigate how many times it reached crests and calculate probability of flood level going over threshold.

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Apr 20th, 2:10 PM Apr 20th, 3:10 PM

Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota

CSU 255

During September 2010, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota resulting in an estimated $65 million in damages and was declared a federal disaster area. The estimated damage of the 2012 flood in Duluth MN was $100 million. Accurately modeling historical river floods is very important in order to protect damage of property and life. It is often argued that phenomenon’s such as floods, hurricanes, and storms are unforeseeable and cannot be predicted accurately. We will investigate if appropriate statistical model are fitted to the historical data and then we can accurately predict such extreme events. We will use various extreme value modeling techniques used in literature and also propose new time-dependent model for predicting future events. For the analysis we will use paste 125 years of Minnesota river data collected by U.S. Geographical survey (USGS) and investigate how many times it reached crests and calculate probability of flood level going over threshold.

Recommended Citation

Kuhnly, Michael. "Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota." Undergraduate Research Symposium, Mankato, MN, April 20, 2015.
http://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/urs/2015/oral_session_12/1