Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota
Location
CSU 255
Start Date
20-4-2015 2:10 PM
End Date
20-4-2015 3:10 PM
Student's Major
Mathematics and Statistics
Student's College
Science, Engineering and Technology
Mentor's Name
Deepak Sanjel
Mentor's Email Address
deepak.sanjel@mnsu.edu
Mentor's Department
Mathematics and Statistics
Mentor's College
Science, Engineering and Technology
Description
During September 2010, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota resulting in an estimated $65 million in damages and was declared a federal disaster area. The estimated damage of the 2012 flood in Duluth MN was $100 million. Accurately modeling historical river floods is very important in order to protect damage of property and life. It is often argued that phenomenon’s such as floods, hurricanes, and storms are unforeseeable and cannot be predicted accurately. We will investigate if appropriate statistical model are fitted to the historical data and then we can accurately predict such extreme events. We will use various extreme value modeling techniques used in literature and also propose new time-dependent model for predicting future events. For the analysis we will use paste 125 years of Minnesota river data collected by U.S. Geographical survey (USGS) and investigate how many times it reached crests and calculate probability of flood level going over threshold.
Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota
CSU 255
During September 2010, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota resulting in an estimated $65 million in damages and was declared a federal disaster area. The estimated damage of the 2012 flood in Duluth MN was $100 million. Accurately modeling historical river floods is very important in order to protect damage of property and life. It is often argued that phenomenon’s such as floods, hurricanes, and storms are unforeseeable and cannot be predicted accurately. We will investigate if appropriate statistical model are fitted to the historical data and then we can accurately predict such extreme events. We will use various extreme value modeling techniques used in literature and also propose new time-dependent model for predicting future events. For the analysis we will use paste 125 years of Minnesota river data collected by U.S. Geographical survey (USGS) and investigate how many times it reached crests and calculate probability of flood level going over threshold.
Recommended Citation
Kuhnly, Michael. "Statistical Model of Flood Damage in Southern Minnesota." Undergraduate Research Symposium, Mankato, MN, April 20, 2015.
https://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/urs/2015/oral_session_12/1
